The sounds of the market retraction after the expiration of the Tax Credit are described in the headline. The number of contracts to purchase dropped 39% from April to May, and declined 27% against May of 2009.  What happened is obvious, but bears a bit of further explanation.

Better Understanding

In the months of February, March and April of 2010, the considerable benefit of the Tax Credit was well understood by the segment of the market that was in a position to take advantage of the opportunity.  While there were some folks that used the opportunity to sell and move up, the bulk of the buying market was first time buyers. The first time buyer segment rand as fast as they could to benefit, in many cases advancing an anticipated home purchase by as much as a an entire year or more.  In other words, there won’t be as many first time buyers available to the market as might have been the case in a “normal” market.  Of course, we really do not know what a normal market looks like at this time.  Looking back, we probably have not seen normal for the better part of a decade.  The buying frenzy that so destroyed markets like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and much of Florida was influenced by monetary factors, not housing demand factors. While the Denver area market did not “heat up” like the aforementioned markets, Denver suffers from the the national backlash of frozen (or at least very cold) mortgage money and reactionary over regulation that accompanies economic downturns.

The Future

Some folks will buy and some folks will sell.  there is always a real estate market. The market many not be as brisk as everyone concerned would like, but in a city the size of Denver, the market will have activity.  The difficulty is not so much the desire to buy, but rather a combination of tight money, consumer apprehension, employment concerns, and overreaching regulatory issues.  The financial services industry has not come to grips with the collapse of the market in 2007-2008, the regulators are running rampant, now creating regulations that conflict with previous regulations in their attempt to appease the voting public, and high unemployment and Federal debt continues to drag the economy.

Our new “normal” in the housing market will be defined by the next two years, as the political landscape changes, mortgage money will become available from other sources besides the banking industry, and unemployment is slowly reduced.

As expected, Existing Home Sales fell in February, slipping 30,000 units versus January’s numbers. It’s the 4th straight month in which Existing Home Sales were lower, month-over-month.

An “existing” home is one that is previously owned and lived-in (i.e. not new construction).

Existing Home Sales peaked in November 2009, just as the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit was set to expire. Immediately thereafter, according to the National Association of Realtors®, monthly sales plunged 17 percent in December, then another 7 percent in January.

Comparatively, February’s dip is a modest 0.6 percent and is more in line with the pre-tax-credit Existing Home Sales trend.  The real estate market is rediscovering its normal.

But “normal” may not last for long.

When the federal home buyer’s tax program was extended last year, the new rules stated that home buyers must be under contract for their new, respective homes on, or before, April 30, 2010 in order to claim up to $8,000 in federal money.  That deadline is approaching and many markets — Denver  included — are experiencing a surge in buyer traffic as April 30 nears.

The Existing Home Sales data doesn’t reflect this new demand, nor the number of new contracts written. It only accounts for home closings and, in February, closings were down.

For today’s buyers, the market looks favorable. The federal tax credit is in place, mortgage rates stubbornly stick near all-time lows, and home prices are staying in check.

Existing Home Sales should gain through March and April, pressuring home prices higher. And, by the time the press reports the gains, the best deals in the city may already be gone.  Consider acting sooner rather than later.

The winter months have not been kind to home sales.

After plunging 17 percent in December, Existing Home Sales fell by an additional 7 percent in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. An “existing home” is a home resold by a previous owner (i.e. not new construction).

In looking at the annualized, adjusted Existing Home Sales data, we find:

1. Sales volume is at its lowest levels since June 2009
2. Sales volume fell below its 12-month rolling average
3. Home supplies are at a 5-month high

These are similar findings to the New Home Sales data issued by the government last week.  That report put new home sales at a 40-year low and showed new homes supplies higher by an entire month.

But don’t think housing rebound has halted! Home sales are cyclical and there are outside forces on today’s market, and Denver area home sales are stronger than the national market.

For one, the market is still feeling the after-effects of the original First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. Sales spiked in the months leading up to the original November 2009 expiration date. A pull-back is natural and expected. The tax credit available for second time buyers depends on those buyers being able to sell their present home, not always easy in the current market.

Looking at the long-term trend, Existing Home Sales volume appears right in line.

Furthermore, weather across much of the U.S. was awful in January. That, too, can impede home sales as homes are neither shown nor negotiated when weather is majorly inclement.

Anecdotal evidence is showing sales activity higher through February and into March. And, although it’s unlikely we’ll see a spike through April like we did last November, buy-side demand for homes should remain strong. The good news of the sagging sales reports is that today’s buyers may find home prices are lower and sellers are more willing to negotiate.

The Pending Home Sales Index rose slightly in December, climbing 1 percent from November.

A Pending Home Sale is a home that is under contract to sell, but not yet sold. It’s a figure compiled by the National Association of Realtors® using sales data from over 100 regional listing services and more than 60 large brokerages around the country.

Because each pending sale is a true measure of sales activity, the Pending Home Sales Index is purported to be the most reliable forward-looking indicator for housing.

Recent data supports this hypothesis.

After Pending Home Sales plunged 16 percent in November, Existing Home Sales fell by 17 percent in December.  Based on the most recent Pending Sales Index, therefore, we can expect January’s closed sales to be similarly level.

For home buyers in Denver , this is all a bit of good news. Home prices are based on the supply-and-demand balance that exists between buyers and sellers.  When buyers outnumber sellers, like they did through most of 2009, home supplies dip and, in fact, the national home inventory nearly halved during the 12 months ending November 2009.

With fewer homes for sale, multiple-offer situations were almost commonplace and home values rose as result.

Activity has since slowed, however, and fewer buyers are in today’s market. The supply-and-demand equation has shifted back some. In December, home supplies rose for the first time in 7 months and January will likely show the same.

The net result: Home buyers have more homes from which to choose and that can create negotiation leverage for better prices and better concessions.

With mortgage rates still low and a looming deadline on the homebuyer’s tax credit, market activity should be strong between now and April.   Take your time and bid right. And when you’re ready, be ready. The best deals likely won’t last.

Just one month after from blowing away Wall Street, December’s Existing Home Sales hit the skids, shedding nearly 17 percent and falling to a 4-month low.

Don’t be alarmed, though. The plunge was expected. And not just because Pending Home Sales cratered last month.

When November’s Existing Home Sales surged, it was clear to observers that an expiring $8,000 federal tax credit was the catalyst. At the time, the tax program was slated to expire November 30 and the looming deadline pushed a lot of would-be buyers in Littleton from a December time frame into November.

The expiration date has a cannibalizing effect on December’s sales figures. It was only later that Congress extended the tax credit to June 30, 2010.

So, with home sales plunging in December, it’s no surprise that home supplies rose for the first time in 9 months.  Home Supply is calculating by dividing the number of homes for sale by the current sales pace.

The national housing supply now rests at 7.2 months.

Despite December’s Existing Home Sales report appearing shaky, it’s actually terrific new for home buyers.

See, for the past few months, as housing has been improving, sellers nationwide have been bombarded by messages of “hot markets” and rising home prices by the media.  Psychologically, a seller is more likely to hold firm on price if he believes the housing market is improving and now December’s data is deflating that argument.

This is why we say there’s always two sides to a housing story — the buyers’ side and the sellers’ side. And, usually, what’s good for one party is bad for the other. It’s what we’re seeing now.

Because of soft data like December’s Existing Home Sales, buyers may retake some negotiation leverage that’s been lost since Spring 2009, helping to improve home affordability and, perhaps, spur more sales.