As the congressional debate continues over the crafting of the what will probably become known as
“Bailoutgate” or something equally absurd, I offer a few comments on today’s “bailout” news:
Bloomberg had a nice little interview with Congressman Barney Frank (D-MA) wherein Frank noted that part of the plan would include punitive restrictions on CEO’s financial compensation. This is really just positioning for creating regulatory restrictions on executive compensation that is currently based on share value rather than business accomplishment. The fear that all business leaders should have is that the finger pointing is going to affect everything in business. I would expect the bailout is going to happen, Congressman Frank noting that there is little choice but to support the idea, subject to some wrangling over the details. But the cost of the bailout will not end with the 700 billion price tag. The real cost will be regulatory zeal on a scale not seen since the 1930’s. Think of the financial crises as an unexpected fire in a crowded building, with Congress acting as untrained firefighters. Water will be sprayed everywhere but on the fire.
Just how the “bailout” will affect the housing market is any body’s guess. At the moment, the overall national housing market has lost perhaps 10% of the value it had in late summer of 2006. Of course 10% is just an educated guess, with some local markets having lost much more or slightly less. What is true is that most people are continuing to make their mortgage payment and, once the bleeding stop, the stability of those paying customers will provide the basis for a recovery. As I noted on Saturday, most people do want to own their home if possible. I believe that the home building industry will take a few years to recover, but as a builder once told me, builders build, and they will begin again as soon as possible. The public at large will begin buying homes again, for the same life cycle reasons they have always bought them.
To put a point on it, my lovely wife just returned from a convention in Vegas, where, she noted, there were mobs of people spending bushels of money. The difficulty today is that people would rather spend money playing in Vegas than buying big ticket items. Congress, recognizing that fact, and that the United States is a consumer economy, will pass the “bailout”, so that the American consumer starts spending money on Main Street. Then, watch out for the regulatory monster. It will come with indiscriminate fury.
Written by Larry D. McGee, Denver Realtor - Visit Website
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