January 2010

A Rate-Locking Strategy Ahead Of The Fed’s Meeting Today

January 29, 2010 by Real Estate News · Leave a Comment 

The Federal Open Market Committee ends a scheduled, 2-day meeting today in Washington. It’s the first of 8 scheduled meetings for the policy-setting group in 2010.

The group adjourns at 2:15 PM ET.

As is customary, upon adjournment, the Fed will issue a press release to the markets recapping its views of the country’s current economic condition, and the outlook for the near-term future.

The post-meeting statements from the Fed are brief but comprehensive. And Wall Street eats them up.  Every word, sentence and phrase is carefully dissected in the hope of gaining an investment edge over other active traders.

It’s for this reason that mortgage rates tend to be jittery on days the FOMC adjourns. Wall Street is frantically re-balancing its bets.

Today should be no different.

The FOMC is expected to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent — the lowest it’s been in history.  However, it’s what the Fed says Wednesday that will matter more than what it does.

After the Fed’s last meeting in December, it made several observations:

1. The jobs market is getting “less worse”
2. The housing sector is making improvements
3. Financial markets are stabilizing further

The economy is gradually improving, the Fed told us, but there are still risks to the economy ahead.  Furthermore, inflation remains in check.

As compared to December’s press release, today’s FOMC statement will be closely watched. If the Fed changes its verbiage in any way that alludes to strong growth and/or inflation in 2010, expect mortgage rates in Denver to rise as Wall Street moves its money from bonds to stocks.

Conversely, reference to slower growth in 2010 should lead rates lower.

We can’t know what the Fed will say so if you’re floating a mortgage rate right now or wondering whether the time is right to lock, the safe approach would be to lock prior to 2:15 PM ET Wednesday. After that, what happens to rates is anyone’s guess.

Denver Area Real Estate Market Times and Average Prices

January 28, 2010 by Janet Marlow · Leave a Comment 

The above graphs show the average days a property is on the market before a contract is accepted. The condo graph has a higher date range, reflective of the generally longer times it takes to sell condos.  The low residential average in November of 2009 reflects both the low residential inventory and the strong sales as a result of the tax credit.

This double line graph shows both single family and condos average prices since December of 2005.  The market is recovering slowly from the drastic drop in late 2008, early 2009.

This graph shows the relationship between closed sales and active resale inventory.  Note that the active inventory has declined since mid-2008, while sales remained somewhat steady during the latter half of 2009.

As inventory has declined in the latter half of 2009, shown by the blue line, prices have crept upward since the low point of January 2009, as noted by the red bars.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (January 27, 2010 Edition)

January 27, 2010 by Real Estate News · Leave a Comment 

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy “has continued to strengthen”, that the jobs markets is getting better, and that financial markets are supportive of growth.

There was no mention of the housing market’s strength.  The last 3 statements from the Fed included that specific verbiage.

It’s the fifth straight statement in which the Fed spoke about the economy with optimism.  This should signal to markets that 2008-2009 recession is over and that economic growth is returning to U.S. economy.

The economy isn’t without threats, however, and the Fed identified several in its press release, including:

1. Credit remains tight for consumers
2. Businesses are reluctant to hire new workers
3. Housing wealth is down

The message’s overall tone, however, remained positive and inflation appears is still within tolerance.

Also in its statement, the Fed confirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period” and to wind down its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage market by March 31, 2010.  This is noteworthy because Fed insiders estimate that the bond-buying program suppressed mortgage rates by 1 percent through 2009.

Mortgage market reaction to the Fed press release is, in general, negative. Mortgage rates in Denver are rising this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is March 16, 2010.

Existing Home Sales Plummet In December, But It Was Expected

January 26, 2010 by Real Estate News · Leave a Comment 

Just one month after from blowing away Wall Street, December’s Existing Home Sales hit the skids, shedding nearly 17 percent and falling to a 4-month low.

Don’t be alarmed, though. The plunge was expected. And not just because Pending Home Sales cratered last month.

When November’s Existing Home Sales surged, it was clear to observers that an expiring $8,000 federal tax credit was the catalyst. At the time, the tax program was slated to expire November 30 and the looming deadline pushed a lot of would-be buyers in Littleton from a December time frame into November.

The expiration date has a cannibalizing effect on December’s sales figures. It was only later that Congress extended the tax credit to June 30, 2010.

So, with home sales plunging in December, it’s no surprise that home supplies rose for the first time in 9 months.  Home Supply is calculating by dividing the number of homes for sale by the current sales pace.

The national housing supply now rests at 7.2 months.

Despite December’s Existing Home Sales report appearing shaky, it’s actually terrific new for home buyers.

See, for the past few months, as housing has been improving, sellers nationwide have been bombarded by messages of “hot markets” and rising home prices by the media.  Psychologically, a seller is more likely to hold firm on price if he believes the housing market is improving and now December’s data is deflating that argument.

This is why we say there’s always two sides to a housing story — the buyers’ side and the sellers’ side. And, usually, what’s good for one party is bad for the other. It’s what we’re seeing now.

Because of soft data like December’s Existing Home Sales, buyers may retake some negotiation leverage that’s been lost since Spring 2009, helping to improve home affordability and, perhaps, spur more sales.

The Right Way To Make Your Bed When Your Home Is Listed For Sale

January 25, 2010 by Real Estate News · Leave a Comment 

Well-made beds aren’t just for comfort — they’re for presentation, too. Especially when you’re selling your home.  A pristine bed conveys an image of cleanliness and order to potential home buyers and that can help you get more of your asking price at the point of negotiation.

When homeowners don’t take the time to make a bed, buyers wonder what else around the home is getting neglected.

And there’s a proper way to make a bed, too.

In this 15-step video from Howcast, you’ll learn how to start with a stripped down mattress, add bedding, pillows and a blanket, and end with the hotel-quality look that today’s home buyers expect.  The alternative is to leave a bed sloppy, reducing your home’s overall appeal.

To make a bed the right way takes less than 2 minutes. When your home is listed for sale, make making the bed a part of your daily routine.

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